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Starting Over: Here's What I Would Do


This is the question I'd most want a friend to ask before they hit "buy" on anything.

So... slowly.

Six things, in order. Don't skip steps.

1. Storage before allocation.

The most expensive mistakes I see new members make aren't about which token they picked. They're about how they held it. So before a dollar moves into anything, decide where it lives.

If your stake is minimal, a clean exchange account (Coinbase or Kraken) with 2FA on a hardware key (Yubikey)—not SMS, not an authenticator app on the same phone you check email on—is enough to start.

If it's large, you may want to consider a Ledger or Trezor. Very large, you may want a multisig or a Trezor + passphrase setup. Read "Storage and Custody: The Two Ways You Lose Your Crypto" in the library before you size anything up.

The order matters. Custody first, allocation second.

2. Decide what this money is.

There's "risk capital I can lose and not change my life" and there's "this is part of my retirement." The honest answer here changes everything downstream.

If it's the first, the framework below is fine. If it's the second, the answer changes dramatically.

3. Tier 1, high-conviction (60–70%).

This is where the ESC portfolio earns its keep. The current Tier 1 names are the ones I'd buy if I was starting over—high conviction, real revenue or real adoption, asymmetric upside on a 2–3 year view.

The live, member-only list lives here: https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/subscription/esc/portfolio A couple of notes when you go to allocate:

Don't equal-weight. A position you don't believe in at 5% becomes the position you can't sit through a 60% drawdown on. Concentrate where conviction is highest.

Use Mentat Minds for any TAO you buy. Non-custodial, real yield, no lock-up. (See the Mentat tutorials in the Terminal.)

5. Tier 2 / satellite (5–10%).

Smaller positions in Tier 2—names where the thesis isn't broken but the timing or catalyst is further out. Treat these like options: small enough that a zero doesn't hurt, big enough that a 10x moves the portfolio.

If you're truly starting over and the rest feels like a lot, it's fine to skip this layer for the first 90 days and add it as you get more comfortable.

6. Cash / stablecoin reserve (10-20%).

This part is non-negotiable. Keep a stablecoin (USDC, ideally on an L2 to keep fees low) sleeve that you don't touch except to buy drawdowns.

The members who outperform are the ones who have dry powder when everyone else is panic selling.

Half this reserve sits on an exchange for quick deployment. Half sits in your own wallet.

A model "starting over" allocation, just to make this concrete:

Tier 1 basket — 70% (concentrated, not equal-weight) Tier 2 satellite — 15% Stablecoin reserve — 15%

Adjust the proportions for your own risk tolerance, but use that as the shape.

A few things I DON'T do:

  • I don't deploy 100% on day one. DCA the majors over 8–12 weeks.

  • Chase whatever ran the most last week. By the time it shows up in a chart you're staring at, the alpha is gone.

  • Don't move size into anything you bought before you've moved a small test amount first. Wrong contract address is the silent killer.

  • Don't take leverage. Not on day one, not on day 90. If the thesis is right, you don't need it.

  • Don't sell on the first red day. Drawdowns of 30–40% on alts happen multiple times in a normal cycle.

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